Why leverage beats raw projection in GPPs (with receipts)
A 6,000-iteration backtest across the last 8 weeks.
JM
Jordan M.· May 10 · 9 min
1ST PLACE RATE+3.2x
STRATEGYWe ran two parallel portfolios for the last 8 weeks. Portfolio A: 20 lineups per slate optimized for raw projection. Portfolio B: 20 lineups per slate optimized for a 70/30 blend of projection and leverage. Same salary cap, same stack rules, same exposure caps.
Cash rate
Portfolio A won 41% of contests it entered. Portfolio B won 33%. If you're a cash-game player, stop reading.
First-place rate (top 1% of GPP)
Portfolio A: 0.12% per lineup. Portfolio B: 0.39% per lineup. That's a 3.2x improvement on the metric that actually pays for tournaments. Same ROI, very different shape.
#Leverage#GPP#Backtest
JM
Jordan M.
Lead sim engineer · 24 postsBuilds models, breaks them, writes about it. Cashed a Milly Maker once. Will not let you forget it.