Last week's Milly Maker winner ran 12k sims. Here's the decode.
Stack shape, leverage, and one surprising late swap.
We don't usually decode winning lineups — survivorship bias, small sample, the usual. But this one is interesting because the winner's process matched our sim's recommendations almost line-for-line, and we have the receipts.
The core stack
Their core stack: Tagovailoa + Hill + Achane, with a Diggs bring-back. Our sim flagged this as a 0.62-correlated build, well above the 0.45 threshold for tournament viability. The field-wide ownership of that exact construction was 4.1%.
The late swap is what most decoders are missing. Between the 1pm lock and the 4pm lock, the winner moved off Bijan Robinson (chalk, 38% own) to D'Andre Swift (low own, similar projection). Our sim's pre-4pm leverage refresh recommended exactly this swap.
Watches every Sunday game with a spreadsheet open. Argues that the best leverage play of the year was a punter, once.